The Effect of Demographic Change on Inflation


DURGUN KAYGISIZ A. , Ezanoglu Z.

SIYASAL-JOURNAL OF POLITICAL SCIENCES, cilt.30, sa.1, ss.45-64, 2021 (ESCI İndekslerine Giren Dergi) identifier

  • Yayın Türü: Makale / Tam Makale
  • Cilt numarası: 30 Konu: 1
  • Basım Tarihi: 2021
  • Doi Numarası: 10.26650/siyasal.2021.30.1.0024
  • Dergi Adı: SIYASAL-JOURNAL OF POLITICAL SCIENCES
  • Sayfa Sayıları: ss.45-64

Özet

Demographic changes have been occurring around the world. These changes are not only the slowdown in population growth but also the changing percentage of the youth and elders in the population composition. This stage changes the weight of groups with different consumption-saving expenditures within the population and affects inflation of the macro-variables. The interaction of this change in population composition on supply and demand affects economic variables such as consumption, savings, and investment. Therefore, macro-variables, such as inflation, may be affected. Moreover, how demographic changes can affect inflation has no standard theoretical explanation. This study explains how demographic change affects inflation. In this regard, the channels of the relationship between demographic variables and inflation were analyzed using a panel data analysis method for 23 emerging economy countries determined by the IMF. Result shows that the increase in the proportion of the young in the total population decreases inflation, which is statistically significant. Meanwhile, the increase in the elderly population in the total population also increases inflation.