Meteorological drought analysis using data-driven models for the Lakes District, Turkey


KESKİN M. E. , Terzi O., TAYLAN E. D. , Kucukyaman D.

HYDROLOGICAL SCIENCES JOURNAL-JOURNAL DES SCIENCES HYDROLOGIQUES, vol.54, no.6, pp.1114-1124, 2009 (Journal Indexed in SCI) identifier identifier

  • Publication Type: Article / Article
  • Volume: 54 Issue: 6
  • Publication Date: 2009
  • Doi Number: 10.1623/hysj.54.6.1114
  • Title of Journal : HYDROLOGICAL SCIENCES JOURNAL-JOURNAL DES SCIENCES HYDROLOGIQUES
  • Page Numbers: pp.1114-1124

Abstract

Droughts may be classified as meteorological, hydrological or agricultural. When meteorological drought appears in a region, agricultural and hydrological droughts follow. In this study, the standardized precipitation index (SPI) was applied for meteorological drought analysis at nine stations located around the Lakes District, Turkey. Analyses were performed on 3-, 6-, 9- and 12-month-long data sets. The SPI drought classifications were modelled by Adaptive Neural-Based Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) and Fuzzy Logic, which has the advantage that, in contrast to most of the time series modelling techniques, it does not require the model structure to be known a priori. Comparison of the observed values and the modelling results shows a better agreement with SPI-12 and ANFIS models than with fuzzy logic models.