Our study aims to model the current and future (2041-2060 and 2081-2100) distribution areas of
Carphoborus minimus (Fabricius, 1798) according to SSP2 and SSP5 emission scenarios. Current and
future potential distribution areas of the species were predicted using the maximum entropy (MaxEnt)
method and the MIROC6 climate change model. Finally, change analysis was performed to reveal the
distributional changes between the present and future distribution ranges of the species. Our study has
made it clear that the most impactful bioclimatic factors on the distribution of the species are
temperature seasonality, isothermality, and precipitation of the driest quarter. Model results showed
that the suitable distribution range for C. minimus is western and southern Anatolia. Models presented
that the species will expand its distribution area through northern Anatolia in the 2050s and 2090s due
to the changing ecological environment. In addition to that, the results of the change analysis showed
that suitable distribution areas for the species will increase between 7% and 13.5% with time.
Therefore, the species can become a new threat to the forests of Northern Anatolia. As a result, state
forestry authorities should take precautions against this bark beetle species in the pine stands of
northern Turkey in the future. Moreover, land-use plans should be developed to prevent the
degradation of forest areas and to plan suitable trees for afforestation.