Navigating the Sustainable Development Goals Through Volatility Spillovers, Maritime Trade, and Commodity Markets
Sustainable Development, 2026 (SSCI, Scopus)
- Yayın Türü: Makale / Tam Makale
- Basım Tarihi: 2026
- Doi Numarası: 10.1002/sd.71248
- Dergi Adı: Sustainable Development
- Derginin Tarandığı İndeksler: Social Sciences Citation Index (SSCI), Scopus, IBZ Online, ABI/INFORM, Environment Index, Geobase, Greenfile, Index Islamicus, Political Science Complete, Public Affairs Index
- Anahtar Kelimeler: Baltic Dry Index, financial stability, metal markets, quantile VAR, sustainable development goals, volatility spillovers
- Süleyman Demirel Üniversitesi Adresli: Evet
Özet
This paper employs a rolling window Quantile VAR (QVAR) to analyze the conditional volatility connectedness between the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) and key metal spot prices. The findings reveal strong co-movements, particularly at the extreme tails of the distribution, highlighting the BDI's role as a critical indicator during market turbulence. These insights are highly relevant for sustainable development goals (SDGs), specifically SDG 9 (Industry, Innovation, and Infrastructure) and SDG 12 (Responsible Consumption and Production). The BDI, as a gauge of global industrial raw material demand, provides signals regarding the health of industrial supply chains and global economic activity, which are foundational for sustainable industrialization. Furthermore, the evidence of volatility spillovers offers international investors a tool for building resilient, diversified portfolios in support of SDG 8 (Decent Work and Economic Growth). By understanding how the non-tradeable BDI impacts tradeable metal assets, investors can better manage risks associated with commodity price volatility, thereby promoting financial stability. This stability is crucial for funding long-term investments in sustainable infrastructure and green technologies, ultimately supporting a transition toward a more sustainable and resilient global economy.