Analyzing the Nexus Between Geopolitical Risk, Policy Uncertainty, and Tourist Arrivals: Evidence From the United States

Shahzad U., Ramzan M., Shah M. I., Dogan B., Ajmi A. N.

EVALUATION REVIEW, vol.46, pp.266-295, 2022 (SSCI) identifier identifier identifier

  • Publication Type: Article / Article
  • Volume: 46
  • Publication Date: 2022
  • Doi Number: 10.1177/0193841x221085355
  • Journal Indexes: Social Sciences Citation Index (SSCI), Scopus, Academic Search Premier, International Bibliography of Social Sciences, EBSCO Education Source, Education Abstracts, Educational research abstracts (ERA), EMBASE, MEDLINE, PAIS International, Psycinfo, Public Administration Abstracts, Public Affairs Index, Social services abstracts, Sociological abstracts
  • Page Numbers: pp.266-295
  • Keywords: Time-varying causality, Geopolitical risk, economic policy uncertainty, tourist arrivals, COVID-19, USA, IMPACT, MONEY, OIL
  • Süleyman Demirel University Affiliated: Yes


This study attempts to explore the causal linkage of the COVID-19 pandemic, economic policy uncertainty, geopolitical risk, and tourism arrivals in the United States taking data from January to November 2020. In order to analyze the above relationship, this study uses a novel time-varying granger causality test developed by Shi et al. (2018), which incorporates its three causality algorithms such as forward recursive causality, rolling causality, and recursive evolving causality. The findings from forward recursive causality could not confirm any significant causal relationship between COVID-19 and tourism, geopolitical risk (GPR) and tourism, economic policy uncertainty and tourism, and geopolitical risk and COVID-19 but found causality between economic policy uncertainty and COVID-19. The rolling window causality reported bidirectional causality between COVID-19 and tourism and unidirectional causality running from tourism to geopolitical risk. However, the recursive evolving causality identified a significant bidirectional causal relationship between all the variables. Based on the findings, policy implications for the tourism sector are provided.