MAXIMUM ENTROPY MODELING (MAXENT) OF CURRENT AND FUTURE DISTRIBUTIONS OF IPS MANNSFELDI (WACHTL, 1879) (CURCULIONIDAE: SCOLYTINAE) IN TURKEY


Sarikaya O. , Karaceylan I. B. , Sen I.

APPLIED ECOLOGY AND ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH, cilt.16, ss.2527-2535, 2018 (SCI İndekslerine Giren Dergi) identifier identifier

  • Cilt numarası: 16 Konu: 3
  • Basım Tarihi: 2018
  • Doi Numarası: 10.15666/aeer/1603_25272535
  • Dergi Adı: APPLIED ECOLOGY AND ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH
  • Sayfa Sayıları: ss.2527-2535

Özet

Climate change has reached the highest rates of the last 1.400 years. This has begun to attract the attention of researchers, and the number of studies on estimation of the environmental impacts of climate change on species has also begun to increase. Ips mannsfeldi (Wachtl, 1879) is a bark beetle (Curculionidae: Scolytinae) species spreading on black pine (Pinus nigra) fields in Turkey. This study aims to model the current and future (2070) distribution of the species according to two different global climate change scenarios. Locations of I. mannsfeldi specimens that were collected in different stands were recorded with GPS. Current and future potential distribution areas of the species have been determined using maximum entropy modeling. RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 emission scenarios reported in IPCC5 were used to estimate the future potential distribution of the species. As a result of the study, it is determined that the species distributes on the Black pine (Pinus nigra) forests throughout the Mediterranean part of Turkey at the present time. According to projections to 2070 the distribution area will expand towards the Aegean region. Depending on the changing climatic conditions, it can be seen that this species expands its distribution area and may be a potential pest that causes economic damage to black pine fields in the coming period.