Comparison of local and global approximators in multivariate chaotic forecasting of daily streamflow


TONGAL H.

HYDROLOGICAL SCIENCES JOURNAL-JOURNAL DES SCIENCES HYDROLOGIQUES, 2020 (Journal Indexed in SCI) identifier identifier

  • Publication Type: Article / Article
  • Volume:
  • Publication Date: 2020
  • Doi Number: 10.1080/02626667.2020.1732983
  • Title of Journal : HYDROLOGICAL SCIENCES JOURNAL-JOURNAL DES SCIENCES HYDROLOGIQUES

Abstract

Although it is conceptually assumed that global models are relatively ineffective in modelling the highly unstable structure of chaotic hydrologic dynamics, there is not a detailed study of comparing the performances of local and global models in a hydrological context, especially with new emerging machine learning models. In this study, the performance of a local model (k-nearest neighbour, k-nn) and, as global models, several recent machine learning models - artificial neural network (ANN), least square-support vector regression (LS-SVR), random forest (RF), M5 model tree (M5), multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS) - was analysed in multivariate chaotic forecasting of streamflow. The models were developed for Australia's largest river, the River Murray. The results indicate that the k-nn model was more successful than the global models in capturing the streamflow dynamics. Furthermore, coupled with the multivariate phase-space, it was shown that the global models can be successfully used for obtaining reliable uncertainty estimates for streamflow.