Journal of Tourism and Services, vol.21, no.11, pp.55-70, 2020 (ESCI)
Tourism
demand is the basis on which all commercial decisions concerning tourism
ultimately depend. Accurate estimation of tourism demand is essential for the
tourism industry because it can help reduce risk and uncertainty as well as
effectively provide basic information for better tourism planning. The purpose
of this study is to develop the optimal forecasting model that yields the
highest accuracy when compared to the forecast performances of three different
methods, namely Artificial Neural Network (ANN), Exponential Smoothing, and
Box-Jenkins methods for forecasting monthly inbound tourist flows to Croatia.
Prior studies have been applied to forecast tourism demand to Croatia based on
time series models and casual methods. However, the monthly and comparative
tourism demand forecasting studies using ANNs are still limited, and this paper
aims to fill this gap. The number of monthly foreign tourist arrivals to
Croatia covers the period between January 2005-December 2019 data were used to
build optimal forecasting models. Forecasting performances of the models were
measured by Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) statistics. As a result of
the experiments carried out, when compared to the forecasting performances of
various models, 12 lagged ANN models, which have [4-3-1] architecture, were
seen to perform best among all models applied in this study. Considering both
the empirical findings obtained from this study and previous studies on tourism
forecasting, it can be seen that ANN models that do not have any negativities
(such as over-training, faulty architecture, etc.) produce successful
forecasting results when compared with results generated by conventional
statistical methods.