Evaluation of the potential effects of climate change on the water use in turkish industry
Tez Türü: Bütünleşik Doktora
Tezin Yürütüldüğü Kurum: Süleyman Demirel Üniversitesi, Mühendislik Ve Doğa Bilimleri Fakültesi, Çevre Mühendisliği Bölümü, Türkiye
Tez Danışmanı: Mehmet Kitiş
Tezin Onay Tarihi: 2025
Tezin Dili: Türkçe
Açık Arşiv Koleksiyonu: AVESİS Açık Erişim Koleksiyonu
Özet:
In this doctoral dissertation, 20 basins within the borders of Türkiye are analyzed through a multidimensional and integrated approach within the framework of the potential impacts of climate change and, in particular, the dynamics of water use in the industrial sector. The primary aim of the study is to identify the physical and socio-economic vulnerability levels of the basins against drought risks, which are expected to intensify in the coming years; and to detect potential imbalances between future water supply and the demands of key sectors such as industry, agriculture, and urban use. Based on these findings, the study aims to contribute to the development of strategic priorities and policy recommendations, particularly targeting the industrial sector. Global climate change projections estimate that the average global temperature will increase by 1.3–2.2 °C by 2050. Toward the end of the century, under the Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5 scenario, this increase is expected to reach 1.7–3.3 °C. These temperature increases may lead to serious consequences for water resources, especially in semi-arid and arid regions such as Türkiye, including uncertainties in the supply of water required for industrial production, reductions in potential water availability, increased evaporation, and growing sectoral water demand. In this context, the impacts of climate change on water resources are regarded as a critical issue that must be addressed in a holistic manner—not only from an environmental perspective but also in terms of industrial policy, economic sustainability, and governance dimensions. In the initial phase of the thesis, existing policy documents related to water resources management in Türkiye, drought management plans, and sectoral water allocation frameworks were comprehensively reviewed. Based on these reviews, projections of climate change were used to evaluate potential changes in water resources at the basin scale by 2050; and spatial analyses were conducted to identify possible reductions in water availability in industrial, agricultural, and urban use areas. Simultaneously, current sectoral water use data were analyzed to determine the spatial distribution and vulnerability levels of industrial sectors with high water dependency. Based on these comprehensive assessments, the Dual-Criteria Analysis (DCA) methodology—developed as the core analytical tool of the study—was applied. Within this framework, the projected reduction rates in water potential by 2050 were considered alongside indicators such as industrial production intensity and the contribution of each basin to the national economy. By integrating these two dimensions, basins were quantitatively scored in terms of sectoral vulnerability and categorized into low, medium, and high-risk groups. According to the findings, half of the 20 evaluated hydrological basins exhibited a high level of vulnerability and drought risk, while the remaining half showed medium-level risk. All analyses were based on modeling outputs included in the Drought Action Plans developed by the General Directorate of Water Management, ensuring reliable estimations of potential water loss for each basin by 2050. In this way, both physical water availability and the vulnerability of water-dependent economic structures—particularly those related to the industrial sector—were jointly assessed, leading to the development of a risk mapping framework that can guide strategic planning under climate change conditions. According to the modeling results presented in the Drought Action Plans, the highest projected reduction in water potential is observed in the Northern Aegean Basin, with an estimated 60% decrease. This is followed by the Konya Basin with 56%, the Seyhan and Sakarya Basins with 49%, and the Akarçay Basin with 43%. These figures indicate that the mentioned basins are highly vulnerable not only in terms of physical water scarcity but also with regard to water-dependent industrial activities, making them priority areas for intervention. On the other hand, when the contribution to gross domestic product (GDP) is assessed relative to total basin population, the Marmara Basin—where industrial production is highly concentrated—ranks first, followed by the Kızılırmak and Northern Aegean Basins. These findings provide a strong basis for prioritizing basins that are strategically important in terms of both declining water potential and the economic productivity of the industrial sector. According to the analysis results, basins where industrial and agricultural sectors are dominant—but where significant reductions in future water availability are expected—have been identified as priority areas for intervention. For instance, the Sakarya, Antalya, Gediz, and Ergene Basins stand out as high-priority basins due to both their economic intensity and high drought risk. In these basins, in order to enhance the resilience of the industrial sector to drought, measures such as water efficiency practices, the use of treated wastewater, the evaluation of alternative water sources, and the restructuring of sectoral water allocations have been recommended. In this context, the applicability of Best Available Techniques (BATs)—particularly for the food industry—has been assessed. A total of 68 BATs applicable to the food sector were identified, and their impacts at the operational level were tested in the Antalya Basin. Using spatial analysis conducted via the Google Earth Engine platform and drought assessment based on the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), the potential effects of BAT implementation were analyzed across three industrial facilities operating in the food sector. Water savings potentials of 20.97%, 0.64%, and 10.86% were identified for Facility 1, Facility 2, and Facility 3, respectively. These findings demonstrate that BAT implementation can serve as an effective and feasible tool in reducing industrial vulnerability. The study also offers concrete solution pathways aimed at providing decision support for policymakers and basin planners. In this regard, strategies such as BAT-based industrial water efficiency applications, sector-specific prioritization, climate-resilient infrastructure investments, and the development of drought early warning systems are proposed. In conclusion, this dissertation presents a comprehensive, data-driven, and scientifically grounded analysis of the impacts of climate change on the industrial sector in Türkiye. It evaluates industrial vulnerabilities, explores opportunities for water efficiency in industry, and supports the development of forward-looking strategic planning. Through the Dual-Criteria Analysis (DCA) method developed within the scope of the study, both the potential reductions in physical water supply and the water dependency of the industrial sector were jointly assessed. This integrated approach enabled the systematic identification of not only current but also future risks. The findings contribute to the development of concrete decision-support mechanisms in areas such as industrial water management, water efficiency strategies, sectoral planning, and investment prioritization—particularly in the context of public policy. The prioritization of basins with high drought risk and intensive industrial production, the widespread implementation of water efficiency practices in industry, the deployment of alternative water resources, and the restructuring of sectoral allocations offer a critical foundation for action. In this regard, the thesis provides guidance for the formulation of applicable water policies that center the industrial sector at both national and local levels, offering concrete contributions toward building a resilient, efficient, and sustainable industrial water management framework in the face of climate change.