Estimation of Present and Future Distribution Areas of Greek Juniper (Juniperus excelsa Bieb.) According to Climate Changes Scenarios in GARP Program

Çardak Ç., Örücü Ö. K.

Journal of Spatial Planning and Design, vol.2, no.1, pp.13-24, 2022 (Peer-Reviewed Journal)


It is known that global warming caused by climate change will have great effects on species. Determining the extent to which some species belonging to our country will be affected by climate change is very important in terms of planning their use in future studies for these species. In this study, which is based on estimating the extent of the effects of climate change and on species distribution, the current distribution areas and climate data in Turkey are used by using the presence data (presence data) and high-resolution environmental data of Juniperus excelsa. The future projection was modeled using the GARP 1.1.6 program, which uses the genetic algorithm for rule set generation, according to the scenarios developed depending on the change.In the modeling, 19 bioclimatic variables created by using the MIROC6 (Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate) model and using the SSP (Shared Socioeconomic Paths) 4.5 and SSP5 8.5 climate scenarios of the years 2041-2060 and 2081-2100 were used, and it was determined how the spatial and spatial distribution areas of the species would change. .According to the results obtained, Juniperus excelsa.It is seen that suitable areas will increase according to the SSP2 4.5 scenario 2050 and 2090 and SSP5 8.5 scenario 2050 estimation, but will decrease according to the SSP5 8.5 scenario 2090 estimation.